Finals and Finally a Trade

NBA Finals Preview

Somehow, I was dead on with my predictions of the Conference Finals: Spurs over Suns in 5 and Pistons over Heat in 7. And now we are in Finals time. And boy, this could easily be a finals for the ages. Neither team is defined by a flashy player, both embody the true definition of "team." What these teams lack in big names, they more than make up for with offensive execution and absolutely amazing defense. In fact, both of these teams are defined by their defense. San Antonio has Tim Duncan and Nazr Mohammed in the middle, with defensive stalwart Bruce Bowen patrolling the outside with Manu Ginobli. Detroit is even better with Rasheed and Ben Wallace (NBA Defensive Player of the Year... again) in the big positions, Tayshaun Prince (A Fantasy Life's Defensive Player of the Year) at the small forward, and a tough guard combo of Billups and Rip Hamilton. Likewise, both teams are incredibly versatile on offense. Either team can go inside to their big men, the Spurs with Duncan and the Pistons with Rasheed, both have dead eye shooters from the outside (Spurs with Bowen and Brent Barry, Pistons with Billups and Hamilton), and both have players who can break the opponent down off the dribble and get into the lane (Ginobli and Parker with the Spurs, Billups and Tayshaun on the Pistons). Even more important that those, both of these teams have experience on the brightest stage as the Spurs won the title 2 years ago and the Pistons claimed it last year.

There are a few differences, even though they aren't as pronounced as others may believe. The Spurs may have a deeper bench, but it doesn't have any players to be counted on. They come off the bench with Barry, Udrich, and some non-descript big men. The Pistons aren't as deep but contain a tremendous 6th man with Antonio McDyess, and some good guards in Lindsay Hunter and Carlos Arroyo. Likewise, most people will say that the Spurs aren't just a slow it down team and can play the game at any pace and still win. I honestly believe that if the Pistons chose to, they could also play the game at any pace. However, the major difference with the teams is that the Spurs seem content to play the game at the other team's pace, the Pistons set the pace themselves. This is something that greatly favors the Pistons. The Spurs may have been able to let other teams dictate pace to them in the early rounds, but they cannot allow the Pistons to do the same; they are just too good when they control the game. This isn't a team that folds in crunch time, they seem content to let teams play around and then go for the knockout punch. Then again, the same could be said for the Spurs. Even the coaching situation is dead even. Greg Popovich and Larry Brown are the best of friends. They both preach the same things to their players. One could say that the situation surrounding Brown's future with the Pistons could be a detriment, but it actually seems like the team plays better despite Larry Brown.

So who wins? Well, the way I see it both teams have one blowout win in them. And then there are the requisite close games going both ways. In the end, I see a hard fought Game 7, both teams going back and forth giving all they have. The Spurs will be leading by 2 as the seconds wind down on the clock and Chauncy Billups lines up for the game winning 3 pointer. It goes down.
Pistons over Spurs, 4 games to 3.

If You Wait Long Enough, You Always Get What You Want.

My good friend Jason Weitzel has some interesting insight into the Placido Polanco for Ugeth Urbina trade at his Beerleaguer Website. Because of his expert analysis, I'll be taking a different look at this trade, because for once, it seems like everyone got what they wanted.

Charlie Manuel wanted to use Polanco as a 6th man of sorts, at multiple positions to keep him in the lineup. Check.
The Phillies wanted to showcase Polanco to get something good for him. Check.
The Phillies fans wanted Chase Utley to be the everyday 2nd Baseman. Check.
The Phillies wanted to get some bullpen help to ease the burden on Fultz, Cormier, Madsen, and Wagner. Check.

Really, it almost seems too good to be true. I guess only time will tell, but for right now, Phillies fans, management, and players can all smile. The downside is that they do not have that ultra utility man anymore and are lacking infield depth for the first time in years. If David Bell gets hurt, who plays third? But that and questions like it are the ones we never want to have answered. Let's enjoy the hotstreak and believe in Ugie. At least until he gives up his first run.

In terms of fantasy value, it remains to be seen what will happen. Early predictions see Polanco easily stepping in for Omar Infante and taking over as the everyday 2nd baseman in Detroit. Infante has struggled this year and Polanco is an easy upgrade. He will get more at bats in Detroit as he won't be stuck platooning at positions. He should not be hurt playing in a pitcher's park like Comerica since he doesn't hit too many home runs. It's impossible to predict what playing in the American League will do to his numbers, but it would be odd to predict a sharp drop for such an intelligent and well rounded player. I can see Polanco hitting around .280 - .300 with a little hit in his power numbers. But if you had him it wasn't for his power anyway. Continue to play him and see what happens.

For the Phillies new setup man Urbina, don't expect his value to jump. He's still a lights out reliever, but still won't be asked to be anything more than a sometimes closer if Wagner needs a day off. Don't expect any serious change in his value. He remains a middle reliever worthy of a roster spot, but there is no reason to break the bank to get him.

Forthcoming Schedule

Seems like everytime I post anymore I'm apologizing for not posting more often. At the current pace it looks like it'll be a once or twice a week occurance, with a guest post here or there. The chat with Beerleaguer's Jason Weitzel is forthcoming, it's just taking a little longer than expected to get things together. Another note is that during the month of July, I will be away. During that time this site will be turned over to Cleveland Correspondant Joel Wertman.